Measuring Business Cycles Intra‐Synchronization in US: A Regime‐switching Interdependence Framework

This paper proposes a Markov‐switching framework to endogenously identify periods where economies are more likely to (i) synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases, and (ii) follow independent business cycles. The reliability of the framework is validated with simulated data in Monte Carlo experiments. The framework is applied to assess the time‐varying intra‐country synchronization in the US. The main results report substantial changes over time in the cyclical affiliation patterns of US states, and show that the more similar the economic structures of states, the higher the correlation between their business cycles. A synchronization‐based network analysis discloses a change in the propagation pattern of aggregate contractionary shocks across states, suggesting that the US has become more internally synchronized since the early 1990s.     

Employment transitions and computer use of older workers

Our empirical analysis studies the impact of computer use on out of employment transitions of older workers, disentangling the effect of using a Personal Computer (PC) at work from that of being PC literate. Data are drawn from the 2000, 2002 and 2004 waves of the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth. We provide empirical evidence that, even controlling for a wide set of covariates, older employees who use a PC at work have a higher probability of remaining employed in the future. However, our results also indicate that, once PC literacy is controlled for, the use of a PC at work decreases only marginally the risk of becoming not employed (i.e. the effect is smaller than the one registered when we do not control for PC literacy).     

Disintermediation in Business-to-Business Service Channels: Mechanisms and Challenges

Purpose: The aim of this article is to delineate a number of different disintermediation mechanisms within the context of business-to-business (B2B) service channels and to identify the specific challenges associated with adopting these mechanisms.

Methodology: The research was conducted in accordance with abductive reasoning, moving continuously between the empirical world of 4 industrial (B2B) firms and the model world.

Findings: This article delineates a choice of 6 disintermediation mechanisms and their attendant challenges within the context of industrial service channels.

Contribution: The article provides an original conceptualization of disintermediation, which is detached from the traditional understanding of the concept. As such, it constitutes a useful starting point for the development of a formal theory of disintermediation.

Implications for Practice: This article should be useful for practitioners, because it presents various disintermediation options available to industrial firms faced by undesired intermediaries in their industrial service channels.     

Which business model for e-book pricing?

We characterize and compare equilibrium pricing strategies in a marketing channel in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the manufacturer chooses the wholesale prices of the two versions of a product, i.e., tangible and digital. and the retailer their prices to consumer. In the second scenario, the players use a revenue-sharing contract for only the digital version, while the competing version is managed by a wholesale price contract. The problem is inspired from a pricing controversy in the e-book industry.     

Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Serbia: evidence from the fully-fledged inflation targeting regime

This article examines the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the Serbian economy, covering the period from January 2009 (the point at which the formal switch to the fully-fledged inflation targeting regime was made) to December 2013. The results of the recursive VAR models suggest that the exchange rate and credit channels play a major role in the monetary transmission process, whereas this is not true in the case of the interest rate channel. However, the results of the non-recursive VAR models show that the role of the exchange rate has diminished over time. On the other hand, the credit channel has become much more influential. Thus, if one of the overriding objectives of adopting the explicit inflation targeting regime is to enhance the importance of other channels apart from the exchange rate channel, which could make monetary policy more effective in achieving price and financial stability, the switch to the inflation targeting regime is justified.     

Motor Vehicle Output and GDP, 1968–2007

In this paper, we assess the performance of the BEA series “value of motor vehicle output” as an indicator of the business cycle over the period 1968–2007. We statistically assess the causal relationship between real motor vehicle output (RMVO) and real gross domestic product (RGDP). This is accomplished by standard estimation and statistical methods used to assess vector autoregressive models. This assessment represents the initial results of a more encompassing research project, the intent of which is to determine the dynamic interaction of the transport sector with the overall economy. It’s a start to a more comprehensive assessment of how transport and economic activity interrelate.

Supply Chain Finance: A supply chain-oriented perspective to mitigate commodity risk and pricing volatility

This study addresses the Supply Chain Finance challenge of Commodity Price Volatility (CPV) by adopting a supply chain-oriented perspective. In particular, the effectiveness of two Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) strategies in mitigating CPV, namely, Switching suppliers and Substituting Commodities, and the main factors that may affect their value, are investigated with a simulation analysis. A Real Option Valuation (ROV) model was developed and tested on real cases of CPV mitigation, as experienced by a large multinational company (Fortune 100) leader in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry. The results show the effectiveness of Switching suppliers and Substituting Commodities in mitigating CPV, highlighting that the convenience of adopting such strategies is strongly influenced by some specific conditions, like the relative values of the long-term prices of the commodities, the purchasing volume, and the sunk cost needed to build flexibility.     

Predictors of credit card use and perceived financial well‐being in female college students: a Brazil‐United States comparative study

This article examines predictors of the financial well‐being of female college students living in São Paulo or New York, focusing upon the relationship with their credit card use behaviour. The results of structural equation models, based on 784 participants, suggest that financial self‐confidence and social comparison have an impact on the use of credit cards and exercise an influence on financial well‐being. Despite the fact that social comparison is more strongly predictive of credit card use among Brazilian women, credit card use behaviour has a greater impact on the well‐being of American women.